(TAN): Quarantine and travel restrictions could cost the United Kingdom nearly three million tourism-related jobs, the newest study from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has shown.
The WTTC’s economic modelling, which evaluates the effects of COVID-19 on the travel sector, indicated job losses could grow 142% to 2.9 million in the United Kingdom versus 1.2 million jobs that were predicted to be under threat from the pandemic. The research showed 1.7 million jobs could be saved if the restrictions were lifted this month.
“Our new modelling reveals the depth of the long-term crisis facing the United Kingdom Travel & Tourism industry if travel restrictions, such as the 14-day quarantine measures introduced by Government this week and the FCO travel advisory continue for some time,” WTTC President and Chief Executive Officer Gloria Guevara said.
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Continued travel restrictions could also lead to a loss of USD 186 billion to the country’s Gross Domestic Product, accounting for 73% less from what the sector had contributed in 2019.
“Under our worst-case scenario, prolonged travel restrictions could put nearly three million jobs under threat and cause a loss of more than USD 180 billion to Travel & Tourism GDP in the United Kingdom,” she added.
Guevara said all industries associated with the tourism sector could suffer as a result of the prolonged global restrictions on travel.
“The sector’s recovery risks being undermined by heavy-handed restrictions just as it emerges from one of the most punishing periods in its history – and it’s not just airlines who will bear the cost but the entire travel ecosystem. Hotels, destinations and travel agents will all suffer from the economic domino effect of prolonged restrictions on movement, plunging millions of travel businesses and their employees into financial ruin,” Guevara said.
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The study also revealed international arrivals to the United Kingdom could sink 73% while domestic arrivals could go down 71%.
Meanwhile, the research indicated three possible consequences for the travel sector – worst-case, baseline and best-case scenario. In the best-case scenario, 1.6 million jobs could be at risk with a loss of USD 106 billion in GDP and a 49% dip in foreign arrivals if measures start to ease from this month for short-haul and regional travel, from July for mid-haul and from August for long-haul.
The best-case scenario can be achieved by following a four-point plan, the WTTC said. The plan involves immediate replacement of 14-day isolation with “air corridors” to countries with similar circumstances, and the lifting of bans on nonessential international travel. The second step includes the adoption of global health and safety protocols to assure travellers it is safe to travel again.
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In the third step, a rapid test and trace strategy to help slow the spread of the virus should be implemented, and the final one requires continuous collaboration between the public and private sectors.
“We’re calling on the Government to remove its quarantine policy as soon as possible to minimise the impact to its economy, which is currently putting the United Kingdom at a distinct competitive disadvantage. Instead, we recommend the opening of ‘travel corridors’ to countries which have controlled the spread and immediate support for the entire Travel & Tourism ecosystem to kick-start the United Kingdom’s economic recovery,” Guevara added.
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