(TAN): British Tourist Authority VisitBritain’s inbound tourism forecast for 2021 is predicting the first signs of a slow recovery for overseas visits to the UK.
The forecast shows a gradual increase in the value of inbound tourism in the UK during January–March 2021 with a step-change heading into Easter and the spring, if national restrictions are eased as expected, particularly from short-haul European markets.
Overall, VisitBritain is expecting 16.9 million inbound visits in 2021. While this is an increase of 73% on this year, it is less than half of the 40.9 million visits the UK saw in 2019.
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Inbound visitor spending is forecast to reach GBP 9 billion (USD 12 billion) in 2021. Although up 59% on 2020, it is less than a third of the all-time spending high of GBP 28.4 billion seen in 2019.
British Tourism Minister Nigel Huddleston said, “This forecast shows our tourism industry can look ahead to 2021 with renewed optimism for recovery… we are committed to bringing the inbound tourism sector back to full strength. Let there be no doubt about this government’s support for tourism.”
UK has already reduced the self-isolation period for contacts of people with coronavirus from 14 days to 10. This also applies to anyone returning from high risk countries.
VisitBritain Director Patricia Yates said, “Tourism is… a fiercely competitive global industry and the key to success will be attracting visitors, those who can travel now, stimulating demand and bookings to drive the quickest return of international tourism spend.”
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Visits from short-haul European markets are forecast to recover quicker than long-haul, although still expected to be half, 13.6 million, of the 27.3 million seen in 2019. VisitBritain is set to launch a campaign early next year across its major European markets including Germany and France, its third and fourth most valuable tourism source markets respectively, to drive future bookings highlighting messages of welcome and reassurance.
For long-haul markets, the forecast is for 3.3 million inbound visits to the UK in 2021, less than a quarter, 24%, of the 13.6 million in 2019.
Tourism is usually worth GBP 127 billion annually to the UK economy.
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